The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From
top to bottom, and left to right: most recent 7-days of accumulated precipitation in inches; current month-to-date
accumulated precipitation in inches; last month's precipitation as a percent of average;
water-year-to-date precipitation as a percent of average.
Additional Precipitation Links: (will take you to an outside website)
High Plains Regional Climate Center's ACIS Maps
The top two images show Climate Prediction Center's Precipitation and Temperature outlooks for 8 - 14 days. The middle image shows the 3 months Precipitation outlook. The bottom left image shows the Weather Prediction Center's Quantitative
Precipitation Forecast accumulation for the seven days between Tuesday 12Z and ending Tuesday 12Z. The
bottom right image shows the Climate Prediction Center's most recent release of the U.S. Seasonal
Short Term: (5/10)
- Today and tomorrow afternoon showers are possible for southeast Colorado and the urban corridor, but the UCRB should stay mostly dry.
- A drying trend will set in later this week with Thursday through Saturday afternoon looking mostly clear for the basin and eastern Colorado.
- Saturday into Sunday a change is expected in the weather with an upper level trough moving into the region bringing cooler temperatures and raising the probability of precipitation.
- Precipitation totals for the upcoming week are expected to be highest east of the Continental Divide, and in the Upper Green River Basin with upslope flow developing Sunday into early next week. The southern portion of the UCRB will be mostly dry. Totals in western Colorado are forecast to range from 0.10-0.50" for the week to come, a fairly typical week.
- The 8-14 day precipitation outlook shows increased chances for above average precipitation in the northern half of the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Colorado. The southern half of the UCRB and southern Colorado will have equal chances of above and below average precipitation.
- The 8-14 day temperature outlook shows increased chances for below average temperatures for the Upper Colorado river Basin. These chances are most strongly enhanced in the western and central portions of the basin. Eastern Colorado has equal chances of above and below average temperatures.
- The Climate Prediction Center May through July outlook shows increased chances of above average precipitation for the entirety of the UCRB and eastern Colorado.
- The seasonal drought outlook for Colorado and the UCRB shows no likely drought development over the next three months, and removal likely in the southeast corner of the state.
Above is the most recent release of the U.S. Drought Monitor map for the UCRB region.
the proposed changes for this week, with supporting text.
Summary: May 24, 2016
The previous week across the UCRB was characterized by below average temperatures, and wet conditions over the high country. The northern and central Rockies, Uintahs, and western San Juans all finished the week with 0.50-1.00" of precipitation, some areas showing 1.00-2.00". In Colorado, east of the Continental Divide, more spring moisture was received by most with 7-day totals over 0.50". Southeastern Colorado was drier in comparison with areas such as Pueblo County getting only 0.01 to 0.10". Month to date temperatures are 0-2 degrees below normal in western Colorado and 2-4 degrees below normal in eastern Colorado.
Despite the cooler than average temperatures, snowmelt rates have been average over the past week in most parts of the UCRB. As streamflows continue their rise towards seasonal peak levels most flows in the UCRB are staying in the normal range. The San Juan River near Bluff, Utah has come up over the last week and is now at 63% of normal in the 38th percentile. From a water supply perspective the biggest concern in the basin continues to be Lake Powell at 71% of average. The Duchesne Basin also is still showing some seasonal dryness. However, soils have improved from areas in the 2nd-5th percentile last week to a small area of 5th-10th precentile this week which is reflected in VIC modeled soil moisture. Evaporative stress is still below average to start the growing season.
UCRB: Some improvement of D0 in La Plata and San Juan counties in southwest Colorado are recommended. This area has seen some beneficial precipitation over the last month and streamflows have increase through the San Juan River to the normal range. The rest of the area that is in D0 has seen similar precipitation recently, however seen some longer term dryness, so we will hold off of recommending improvement.
Eastern Colorado: Status quo.
**Disclaimer: The above recommendations are recommendations only, based on data, impacts, and
input from local experts. These recommendations are sent to the U.S. Drought Monitor author on Tuesdays. The USDM author
has sole discretion on final changes made in the region and can accept, reject, or modify the above recommendations
and may have additional modifications. Additionally, any recommendations discussed during the NIDIS webinars that are agreed upon
by the local experts and USDM author are still subject to change. Changes are final and official as of Thursday
morning, and can be viewed on the official U.S. Drought Monitor website.
Additional Drought Index Links: (will take you to an outside website)
Palmer Drought Severity Index for Climate Divisions Updated Weekly
WestWide Drought Tracker's PDSI Updated Monthly
Surface Water Supply Index