The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From
top to bottom, and left to right: most recent 7-days of accumulated precipitation in inches; current month-to-date
accumulated precipitation in inches; last month's precipitation as a percent of average;
water-year-to-date precipitation as a percent of average.
Last Week Precipitation:
June Precipitation :
Water Year Precipitation (Oct-June):
STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX
Standardized Precipitation Index standardizes precipitation accumulations for a specified time period
into percentile rankings. -1.0 to -1.5 is
equivalent to a D1 to D2. -1.5 to -2.0 is equivalent to a D2 to D3. -2.0 and worse is equivalent to a D3 to
D4. 30- and 60-day SPIs focus on short-term conditions while 6- and 9-month SPIs focus on long-term
conditions. SPI data provided by High Plains Regional Climate Center.
Short Term (30-day):
Long Term (6-month):
The top left image shows 7-day averaged streamflows as a percentile ranking across the UCRB. The top
right image shows 7-day averaged discharge over time at three key sites around the UCRB: The Colorado
River at the CO-UT state line; the Green River at Green River, UT; and the San Juan River near Bluff,
UT. All streamflow data provided by United States Geological Survey.
The top left image shows VIC modeled soil moisture as a percentile ranking. The top right image shows
satellite-derived vegetation from the VegDRI product (which updates on Mondays).
The above image shows last month's and this month's current volumes of the major reservoirs in
the UCRB, with percent of average and percent of capacity.
|The above images are of reference evapotranspiration (ET) from CoAgMet sites across Colorado. Reference ET assumes the amount of water that will evaporate from a well-irrigated crop. Higher ET rates occur during hot, dry, and windy conditions. Lower ET rates are more desirable for crops. See a map of locations for the above ET sites.|
All images show temperature departures from average over different time periods (last 7 days on top
left; month-to-date on top right; last full month on bottom). Temperature departure
maps provided by HPRCC ACIS.
Last Week Temperatures:
Last Month Temperatures:
FORECAST AND OUTLOOK
The top two images show Climate Prediction Center's Precipitation outlooks for 8 - 14 days (top left)
and 3 months (top right). The bottom left image shows the Hydrologic Prediction Center's Quantitative
Precipitation Forecast accumulation for the five days between Tuesday 12Z and ending Sunday 12Z. The
bottom right image shows the Climate Prediction Center's most recent release of the U.S. Seasonal
Above is the most recent release of the U.S. Drought Monitor map for the UCRB region. Below shows
the proposed changes for this week, with supporting text.
Summary: July 22, 2014
The UCRB had a hot, dry week. Hopefully this is the time of year where it will see a shift to wetter, and hopefully a little cooler pattern. Climatologically, rain should start to increase in this area over the next few weeks, and El Nino could potentially help enhance this effect. If not, conditions will degrade further. Areas of concern such as Sweetwater, Duchesne, and Uintah have stayed very dry, and conditions are deteriorating in the Four Corners region especially, but along much of the CO-UT border.
East of the divide monsoonal flow has continued to improve conditions in southeast Colorado. However this rain has been primarily convective and have lead to more runoff than desired where rains have been heaviest. This is well-reflected by streamflow statistics along the Arkansas River.
Drier conditions have returned to the northeastern plains with most of the area picking up less than a quarter of an inch of precipitation over the past week. This is not a major concern as of yet due to recent slugs of moisture in the area and below average temperature conditions. Reference ET in this area is tracking below normal for the season.
Important moisture has fallen over the past week in the Upper Rio Grande and San Juan River basins as well as Las Animas and Huerfano Counties in southern CO. Flows in the San Juan River have returned to the normal range.
Conditions along the Green River in western Carbon and Uintah Counties have been hot and dry, and indices in Duchesne County continue to tell a sad story. Based primarily on SPIs in Duchesne County and the way soil and vegetative health models show the area just to the east of Duchesne in comparison a one-category degradation is recommended in the area. This would involve extending D1 into extreme northeastern Emery County, eastern Carbon County, and central Uintah County. Conditions look the worst in Duchesne and western Uintah Counties, so western Uintah would be degraded to D2 and the D3 over southern Duchesne could be pushed to the county line.
Another area to watch for possible degradation based on recent dry conditions would be the CO-UT state line, primarily around Grand Junction. Based primarily on wet 90 day SPIs the recommendation is status quo for now.
Recent monsoonal moisture and below average temperatures have brought improvements to southern and southeastern Colorado. Looking back at 6 and 9 month SPIs there doesn't appear to be justification for keeping the D3 in southern Las Animas and Baca Counties. This justification would have to come from data of 12+ month time series. It is recommended that this region be improved to D2.
Huerfano, eastern Pueblo, south Lincoln, western Otero, and western Crowley Counties all came out with a good week of moisture. Vegetation and soil health is shown by models to be improving in the area as well. A one-category improvement is recommended for much of this region. No improvements are justified east of Lincoln County's border with Cheyenne County, so these boundaries would take on more of a southerly slope.