{"id":1253,"date":"2026-09-03T22:56:19","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T22:56:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/?p=1253"},"modified":"2026-09-03T22:56:20","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T22:56:20","slug":"what-super-el-nino-means-for-colorado","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/index.php\/2026\/09\/03\/what-super-el-nino-means-for-colorado\/","title":{"rendered":"What Super El Ni\u00f1o Means for Colorado"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You have likely heard news about El Ni\u00f1o recently. The National Weather Service reports that El Ni\u00f1o officially <a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/el-nino-forms-expected-to-strengthen-say-noaa-forecasters\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/el-nino-forms-expected-to-strengthen-say-noaa-forecasters\">began in June<\/a>. Observations from the International Research Institute show that it continues to <a href=\"https:\/\/iri.columbia.edu\/our-expertise\/climate\/forecasts\/enso\/current\/\">strengthen<\/a>. There is a greater than 90% chance of this becoming a &#8220;super&#8221; El Ni\u00f1o, and a greater than 50% chance of it becoming the strongest event since modern record-keeping began in <a href=\"https:\/\/cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso\/roni\/strengths\/\">1950<\/a>. Here is a look at what El Ni\u00f1o is and why it matters for Colorado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El Ni\u00f1o refers to a climate pattern characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (image 1). Normally, waters in the eastern Pacific (off the coast of South America) are much cooler than those in the western Pacific (near Indonesia and Papua New Guinea) (image 2). Earth&#8217;s rotation drives tropical trade winds from east to west, pushing warm surface water westward and pulling cool, deep ocean water to the surface along the coast of South America. During El Ni\u00f1o, these trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to spread east and suppressing the normal upwelling of cold water.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"438\" src=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1256\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-2.png 720w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-2-300x183.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Image 1: Sample sea surface temperaure anomalies (Celsius) during El Ni\u00f1o (left) and La Ni\u00f1a (right). Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/media\/14414\">climate.gov<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" src=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-5-1024x509.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1259\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-5-1024x509.png 1024w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-5-300x149.png 300w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-5-1536x764.png 1536w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-5-768x382.png 768w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-5-1023x509.png 1023w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-5.png 1580w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Image 2: Average sea surface temperatures (Celsius). Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/svs.gsfc.nasa.gov\/3652\">nasa.gov<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El Ni\u00f1o conditions typically peak during northern hemisphere winter. Peruvian <a href=\"https:\/\/oceanservice.noaa.gov\/facts\/ninonina.html\">fishermen<\/a> originally named the phenomenon (Spanish for &#8220;little boy,&#8221; or &#8220;Christ child&#8221;) after noticing coastal waters warmed around Christmas. While this meant less productive <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservation.org\/news\/this-el-nino-is-different-heres-why\">fishing<\/a> in South America, El Ni\u00f1o also alters global oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Its most predictable weather impacts include warmer, wetter weather in the eastern Pacific, drier conditions across the Amazon, and warm, dry weather in Indonesia (image 3). These circulation shifts ripple into natural and human systems\u2014for instance, El Ni\u00f1o correlates with higher mosquito-borne mortality in South America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"801\" height=\"384\" src=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/el_winter1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1260\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/el_winter1.png 801w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/el_winter1-300x144.png 300w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/el_winter1-768x368.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 801px) 100vw, 801px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Image 3: Typical El Ni\u00f1o impacts to global weather. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/jetstream\/enso_impacts\">noaa.gov<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">North America is impacted by El Ni\u00f1o as well. In response to weaker tropical trade winds, the northern hemisphere polar jet stream tends to weaken, and split with a more active southern flank. This raises the odds of cooler, wetter conditions across the U.S. Sunbelt, drier weather to the Ohio River Valley, and warmer conditions to the Pacific Northwest, north-central U.S., and a wide swath of Canada, and Alaska (image 4).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"620\" height=\"878\" src=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1255\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-1.png 620w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-1-212x300.png 212w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Image 4: Typical alterations to normal winter weather patterns from El Ni\u00f1o (top) and La Ni\u00f1a (bottom) over North America. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climate.us\/news-features\/understanding-climate\/our-most-requested-el-nino-and-la-nina-images\">climate.us<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Historical <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Pearson_correlation_coefficient\">correlation<\/a> analysis shows El Ni\u00f1o is also linked to changes in Colorado weather, where conditions are generally wetter during El Ni\u00f1o years (image 5). This is especially true in fall and spring, when much of the state averages higher precipitation. Furthermore, the Front Range and Eastern Plains are more prone to large spring snowstorms and experience fewer dry and windy spring days (though such days remain frequent regardless). Unfortunately, the link between the El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and peak seasonal snowpack levels in Colorado is weak. Southern river basins, such as the San Juan and Rio Grande, show a loose positive correlation between El Ni\u00f1o and snowpack (image 6). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7-1024x682.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1262\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7-1024x682-1.png 1024w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7-767x511.png 767w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7.png 1504w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Image 5: Statistical relationship between El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation in Colorado. Green areas tend to be wetter during El Ni\u00f1o and blue areas tend to be wetter during La Ni\u00f1a.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"994\" src=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-10-1024x994.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1266\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-10-1024x994-1.png 1024w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-10-300x291.png 300w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-10-767x745.png 767w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-10-1536x1491.png 1536w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-10-2048x1988.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Image 6: Linear correlation between ENSO RONI and peak season snowpack in major Colorado river basins. Blue = more snow on average during El Ni\u00f1o. Brown = more snow on average during La Ni\u00f1a.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Does a stronger El Ni\u00f1o guarantee more intense impacts? Not necessarily. Linear correlation models assume stronger events yield stronger outcomes, but real-world evidence is limited. Modern records include only three &#8220;super&#8221; El Ni\u00f1os (sea surface temperature anomalies of +2.0 \u00b0C or higher): 1982\/83, 1997\/98, and 2015\/16. While 1982\/83 delivered huge snowfall to Colorado, the latter two yielded roughly average conditions. Drawing firm conclusions from three events is unreliable, and our physical understanding of Earth&#8217;s climate system offers no clear threshold where impacts suddenly scale. On the positive side, dynamical seasonal climate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/NMME\/seasanom.shtml\">models<\/a> and the Climate Prediction <a href=\"https:\/\/cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/\">Center<\/a> both indicate elevated odds of above-normal precipitation across most of Colorado through spring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Climate change complicates our understanding of what we can expect from a strong El Ni\u00f1o. Earth&#8217;s climate system has changed since the super El Ni\u00f1o and major snow year of 1982\/83. Colorado is <a href=\"https:\/\/climatechange.colostate.edu\/\">warming<\/a>, and average precipitation is likely decreasing in western <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncei.noaa.gov\/access\/monitoring\/climate-at-a-glance\/divisional\/time-series\/0502\/pcp\/12\/12\/1895-2026\">Colorado<\/a>. The correlation analyses shown above do not account for these shifting baselines. A wet year is not guaranteed. Even if the storms do come, less of the precipitation may fall as snow than in a typical year, especially at lower elevations. Colorado continues to suffer from severe <a href=\"https:\/\/droughtmonitor.unl.edu\/\">drought<\/a> largely driven by snowpack deficits last winter and record warm temperatures. There is a strong appetite among people for moisture. The brewing super El Ni\u00f1o may offer some hope, but a wide array of outcomes are possible this winter. It is a bit like playing a game of poker with a few extra aces and kings in the deck. The deck may be stacked in our favor, but we could still draw a crummy hand. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>You have likely heard news about El Ni\u00f1o recently. The National Weather Service reports that El Ni\u00f1o officially began in June. Observations from the International Research Institute show that it continues to strengthen. There is a greater than 90% chance of this becoming a &#8220;super&#8221; El Ni\u00f1o, and a greater than 50% chance of it [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1262,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,49,67,63,18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1253","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-context","category-drought","category-enso","category-snowpack","category-water"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What Super El Ni\u00f1o Means for Colorado - Colorado Climate Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/index.php\/2026\/09\/03\/what-super-el-nino-means-for-colorado\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What Super El Ni\u00f1o Means for Colorado - Colorado Climate Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"You have likely heard news about El Ni\u00f1o recently. The National Weather Service reports that El Ni\u00f1o officially began in June. Observations from the International Research Institute show that it continues to strengthen. There is a greater than 90% chance of this becoming a &#8220;super&#8221; El Ni\u00f1o, and a greater than 50% chance of it [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/index.php\/2026\/09\/03\/what-super-el-nino-means-for-colorado\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Colorado Climate Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ColoradoClimateCenter\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-03T22:56:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-03T22:56:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-2.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"438\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Peter Goble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ColoradoClimate\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ColoradoClimate\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Peter Goble\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/climate.colostate.edu\\\/blog\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/03\\\/what-super-el-nino-means-for-colorado\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/climate.colostate.edu\\\/blog\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/03\\\/what-super-el-nino-means-for-colorado\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Peter Goble\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/climate.colostate.edu\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0ff4b95e0ea3f267e400defb459a4ccd\"},\"headline\":\"What Super El Ni\u00f1o Means for Colorado\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-09-03T22:56:19+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-09-03T22:56:20+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/climate.colostate.edu\\\/blog\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/03\\\/what-super-el-nino-means-for-colorado\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":884,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/climate.colostate.edu\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/climate.colostate.edu\\\/blog\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/03\\\/what-super-el-nino-means-for-colorado\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/climate.colostate.edu\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/image-7.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"climate context\",\"drought\",\"ENSO\",\"snowpack\",\"water\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/climate.colostate.edu\\\/blog\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/03\\\/what-super-el-nino-means-for-colorado\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/climate.colostate.edu\\\/blog\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/03\\\/what-super-el-nino-means-for-colorado\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/climate.colostate.edu\\\/blog\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/03\\\/what-super-el-nino-means-for-colorado\\\/\",\"name\":\"What Super El Ni\u00f1o Means for Colorado - 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He received his B.S. in meteorology from the University of Northern Colorado and his M.S. in atmospheric science from Colorado State University. He specializes in climate variability and drought. Recent research projects include investigating the sources of error in western Colorado water supply forecasts, determining areas of Colorado most suitable for expansion of the wine grape industry, understanding the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation patterns in Colorado, and increasing both observational and modeled soil moisture monitoring efforts in Colorado. Peter is the Colorado Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network Coordinator, a community science organization focused on improving precipitation observations around the world.\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/climate.colostate.edu\\\/blog\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/petergbl\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"What Super El Ni\u00f1o Means for Colorado - Colorado Climate Blog","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/index.php\/2026\/09\/03\/what-super-el-nino-means-for-colorado\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"What Super El Ni\u00f1o Means for Colorado - Colorado Climate Blog","og_description":"You have likely heard news about El Ni\u00f1o recently. The National Weather Service reports that El Ni\u00f1o officially began in June. Observations from the International Research Institute show that it continues to strengthen. 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