{"id":885,"date":"2025-10-12T18:24:08","date_gmt":"2025-10-12T18:24:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/?p=885"},"modified":"2025-10-12T18:24:09","modified_gmt":"2025-10-12T18:24:09","slug":"major-rainfall-and-flooding-in-southwest-colorado","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/index.php\/2025\/10\/12\/major-rainfall-and-flooding-in-southwest-colorado\/","title":{"rendered":"Major rainfall and flooding in southwest Colorado"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>On Friday and Saturday, southwestern Colorado experienced one of the largest fall rainstorms ever to hit the region. Rainfall totals from 2 to over 4 inches were reported at both lower and higher elevations, and the rain falling on the steep terrain resulted in major flooding. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"698\" src=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/mrms_multisensor_coco_since_tuesday_12z-1024x698.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-886\" style=\"width:749px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/mrms_multisensor_coco_since_tuesday_12z-1024x698.png 1024w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/mrms_multisensor_coco_since_tuesday_12z-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/mrms_multisensor_coco_since_tuesday_12z-768x524.png 768w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/mrms_multisensor_coco_since_tuesday_12z-1536x1048.png 1536w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/mrms_multisensor_coco_since_tuesday_12z.png 1720w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Rainfall totals through Sunday morning, October 12, 2025, estimated from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system and observed by CoCoRaHS volunteers. From <a href=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/drought\/#precip\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/drought\/#precip <\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>One area that was hit particularly hard was Pagosa Springs. This video from Maria Kelly on Facebook shows the floodwaters rushing down the San Juan River through the area near the famous hot springs resort. (She has several other videos showing the flooding as well.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/plugins\/video.php?height=476&#038;href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Freel%2F24838509502435856%2F&#038;show_text=false&#038;width=267&#038;t=0\" width=\"267\" height=\"476\" style=\"border:none;overflow:hidden\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" allow=\"autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowFullScreen=\"true\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>There is a fantastic group of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cocorahs.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CoCoRaHS<\/a> volunteer observers around Pagosa, and their measurements map out the rainfall totals from Friday and Saturday, with numerous observations of over 3&#8243;. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"791\" src=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-12-at-12.21.06-PM-1024x791.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-906\" style=\"width:788px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-12-at-12.21.06-PM-1024x791.png 1024w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-12-at-12.21.06-PM-300x232.png 300w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-12-at-12.21.06-PM-768x593.png 768w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-12-at-12.21.06-PM-1536x1186.png 1536w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-12-at-12.21.06-PM.png 1994w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Two-day rainfall totals from CoCoRaHS observers around Pagosa Springs, Colorado. These are generally morning observations, so include the period from Friday morning (Oct 10) through Sunday morning (Oct 12).<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The stream gauge on the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs reached into the &#8216;major&#8217; range with a crest at 12.66 feet on Saturday evening, before dropping down overnight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/San-Juan-River-at-Pagosa-Springs-1024x512.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-889\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/San-Juan-River-at-Pagosa-Springs-1024x512.png 1024w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/San-Juan-River-at-Pagosa-Springs-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/San-Juan-River-at-Pagosa-Springs-768x384.png 768w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/San-Juan-River-at-Pagosa-Springs-1536x768.png 1536w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/San-Juan-River-at-Pagosa-Springs.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Flow on the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs, showing the river reaching major flood stage on Saturday, October 11. From <a href=\"https:\/\/water.noaa.gov\/gauges\/pspc2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/water.noaa.gov\/gauges\/pspc2 <\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Vallecito Creek, north of Durango and Bayfield, also experienced major flooding on Saturday with homes flooded and residents needing to be evacuated, as outlined in this <a href=\"https:\/\/coloradosun.com\/2025\/10\/11\/vallecito-floods-southwest-colorado-hurricane-priscilla\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Colorado Sun story.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The largest rainfall totals were at the higher-elevation SNOTEL stations, which are located upstream (and uphill) from the areas with the worst flooding. The Upper San Juan station (just west of Wolf Creek Pass) recorded 6.2&#8243; of precipitation over the two days on Friday and Saturday. Several other SNOTEL stations recorded over 5&#8243; in two days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"791\" src=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2_day_Precipitation_Value_October_10_2025_-_October_11_2025-1024x791.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-891\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2_day_Precipitation_Value_October_10_2025_-_October_11_2025-1024x791.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2_day_Precipitation_Value_October_10_2025_-_October_11_2025-300x232.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2_day_Precipitation_Value_October_10_2025_-_October_11_2025-768x593.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2_day_Precipitation_Value_October_10_2025_-_October_11_2025-1536x1187.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2_day_Precipitation_Value_October_10_2025_-_October_11_2025-2048x1583.jpeg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>2-day precipitation totals from SNOTEL stations in southwestern Colorado. From the <a href=\"https:\/\/nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov\/imap\/#version=170&amp;elements=R&amp;networks=!&amp;states=!&amp;counties=!&amp;hucs=&amp;minElevation=&amp;maxElevation=&amp;elementSelectType=all&amp;activeOnly=true&amp;activeForecastPointsOnly=false&amp;hucLabels=false&amp;hucIdLabels=false&amp;hucParameterLabels=true&amp;stationLabels=parameter&amp;overlays=&amp;hucOverlays=state,county&amp;basinOpacity=80&amp;basinNoDataOpacity=0&amp;basemapOpacity=100&amp;maskOpacity=0&amp;mode=data&amp;openSections=dataElement,parameter,date,basin,options,elements,location,networks,overlays,labels&amp;controlsOpen=true&amp;popup=&amp;popupMulti=&amp;popupBasin=&amp;base=esriNgwm&amp;displayType=station&amp;basinType=co_8&amp;dataElement=PREC&amp;depth=-8&amp;parameter=OBS&amp;frequency=DAILY&amp;duration=custom&amp;customDuration=2&amp;dayPart=E&amp;monthPart=E&amp;forecastPubDay=1&amp;forecastExceedance=50&amp;useMixedPast=true&amp;seqColor=1&amp;divColor=3&amp;scaleType=D&amp;scaleMin=&amp;scaleMax=&amp;referencePeriodType=POR&amp;referenceBegin=1981&amp;referenceEnd=2010&amp;minimumYears=20&amp;hucAssociations=true&amp;relativeDate=-1&amp;lat=37.4890&amp;lon=-106.9505&amp;zoom=9.0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">USDA\/NRCS interactive map<\/a>.  <\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>These are *huge* amounts of rain in this region, especially over such a widespread area. Below are tables showing the largest two-day precipitation totals at the Upper San Juan and Vallecito SNOTEL sites. At Upper San Juan, the 6.1&#8243; from this storm is the 2nd highest on record, with data going back to 1978, and the 5.0&#8243; at Vallecito is the highest on record with data since 1986. You might notice that most of the other storms in these rankings are in winter: it&#8217;s not too uncommon for the southern mountains to get a lot of moisture from a huge dump of snow, but it&#8217;s very rare to see 5-6 inches of rain. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"590\" data-id=\"892\" src=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-12-at-9.23.34-AM-1024x590.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-892\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-12-at-9.23.34-AM-1024x590.png 1024w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-12-at-9.23.34-AM-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-12-at-9.23.34-AM-768x442.png 768w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-12-at-9.23.34-AM.png 1132w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"603\" data-id=\"893\" src=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-12-at-10.03.22-AM-1024x603.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-893\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-12-at-10.03.22-AM-1024x603.png 1024w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-12-at-10.03.22-AM-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-12-at-10.03.22-AM-768x452.png 768w, https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-12-at-10.03.22-AM.png 1118w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<figcaption class=\"blocks-gallery-caption wp-element-caption\"><em>Rankings of the top 2-day precipitation totals at the Upper San Juan (left) and Vallecito (right) SNOTEL stations. Data via ACIS and NRCS.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Where did this storm come from?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The moisture source for this storm was the remnants of Hurricane Priscilla in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The map below on the left show precipitable water (the total amount of water vapor in the atmospheric column), and on the right is the standardized anomaly of PW &#8212; how unusual the amount of moisture is for the time of year, shown as standard deviations from the average. The stream of moisture ahead of Priscilla into the southwestern US is very apparent, and the standardized anomalies are basically &#8220;off the charts&#8221; for this time of year: 5 to 6 standard deviations above normal. The weather balloon from the National Weather Service in Grand Junction on Friday evening measured 1.05&#8243; of precipitable water, the most ever recorded so late in the year. (Over an inch is somewhat common during the monsoon season in summer, but had never happened later than the first week of October.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-2 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1333\" height=\"977\" data-id=\"898\" src=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/pwat_gfs_anim-1.gif\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-898\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1333\" height=\"975\" data-id=\"896\" src=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/pwat_stdanom_gfs_anim.gif\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-896\"\/><\/figure>\n<figcaption class=\"blocks-gallery-caption wp-element-caption\"><em>Animations of precipitable water (left) and the standardized anomaly of precipitable water (right) from GFS model initializations, every 6 hours between 9-11 October 2025. Images from <a href=\"https:\/\/schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu\/weather\/gfs.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu\/weather\/gfs.php<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Speaking of Grand Junction, they also received a lot of rain: 2.01&#8243; between Friday and Saturday. That is only the 5th time that the Grand Junction airport recorded over 2&#8243; of rain in two days, and the first since September of 1941. Kudos also to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/gjt\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">National Weather Service team in Grand Junction<\/a> for issuing timely forecasts and warnings for this event (and continuing to release weather balloons), while they work without pay as the government is shut down. More heavy rain is expected on Monday in southwestern Colorado, as the moisture from yet another tropical cyclone (this time, Raymond) moves in. This may exacerbate the ongoing flooding, so be sure to pay attention to forecasts and warnings if you&#8217;re in the area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In case you missed it, here&#8217;s the link to our <a href=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/monthly_summary.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">September monthly climate summary,<\/a> which includes some information about other flooding that occurred last month (including a remarkable, but very localized, rainstorm just south of Grand Junction). And if you&#8217;re interested, join us for the <a href=\"https:\/\/events.colostate.edu\/en\/8XFV416\/colorado-climate-futures-csu-climate-hub-at-spur-launch-event-3a8VVHQXB\/overview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">launch of the CSU Climate Hub at Spur on Tuesday afternoon in Denver<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We&#8217;ll crunch more numbers on this event as they come in, and we&#8217;re sending our best wishes to everyone affected by the flooding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On Friday and Saturday, southwestern Colorado experienced one of the largest fall rainstorms ever to hit the region. Rainfall totals from 2 to over 4 inches were reported at both lower and higher elevations, and the rain falling on the steep terrain resulted in major flooding. One area that was hit particularly hard was Pagosa [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":886,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,32,42,10,18],"tags":[21,43,7],"class_list":["post-885","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-context","category-cocorahs","category-flooding","category-precipitation","category-water","tag-climate-context","tag-flooding","tag-precipitation"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Major rainfall and flooding in southwest Colorado - Colorado Climate Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/climate.colostate.edu\/blog\/index.php\/2025\/10\/12\/major-rainfall-and-flooding-in-southwest-colorado\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Major rainfall and flooding in southwest Colorado - Colorado Climate Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On Friday and Saturday, southwestern Colorado experienced one of the largest fall rainstorms ever to hit the region. Rainfall totals from 2 to over 4 inches were reported at both lower and higher elevations, and the rain falling on the steep terrain resulted in major flooding. 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