The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From
top to bottom, and left to right: most recent 7-days of accumulated precipitation in inches; current month-to-date
accumulated precipitation in inches; last month's precipitation as a percent of average;
water-year-to-date precipitation as a percent of average.
Additional Precipitation Links: (will take you to an outside website)
High Plains Regional Climate Center's ACIS Maps
The top two images show Climate Prediction Center's Precipitation and Temperature outlooks for 8 - 14 days. The middle image shows the 3 months Precipitation outlook. The bottom left image shows the Weather Prediction Center's Quantitative
Precipitation Forecast accumulation for the seven days between Tuesday 12Z and ending Tuesday 12Z. The
bottom right image shows the Climate Prediction Center's most recent release of the U.S. Seasonal
Short Term: (7/19)
- Rainfall totals may be generous across southwest and central Colorado between now and Tuesday with subtropical moisture being funneled into the region. Rainfall totals of over 0.50" are expected for the region between now and Friday morning. The southern Wasatch Range is likely to see over 0.25" of precipitation. Some light precipitation is likely for eastern Colorado.
- This weekend the west side of the basin will be dry. Afternoon thunderstorms will still be possible for most of the state of Colorado. These storms will be isolated and likely low precipitation cells. The San Juan Range continues to be the wettest anticipated location.
- The 8-14 day precipitation outlook shows increased chances for below average precipitation for the Upper Green River Basin and extreme southeast Colorado. The rest of the basin and eastern Colorado are forecast equal chances of above and below average precipitation.
- The 8-14 day temperature outlook shows increased chances for above average temperatures for the entirety of the UCRB and eastern Colorado. These chances are highest in the southwest corner of the basin.
- The Climate Prediction Center July through September outlook shows equal chances of above an below average precipitation for the entirety of the UCRB and eastern Colorado.
- The seasonal drought outlook for Colorado and the UCRB shows no likely drought development over the next three months.
Above is the most recent release of the U.S. Drought Monitor map for the UCRB region.
the proposed changes for this week, with supporting text.
Summary: July 19, 2016
Over the past week southerly flow developed over south and central Colorado bringing in subtropical moisture. There were afternoon and evening thunderstorms somewhere in eastern Colorado every night of the week except Saturday. Most of the eastern plains picked up at least 0.25" of precipitation from these storms. The highest totals were over an inch in central and eastern Lincoln County, western Cheyenne County, southwest Kit Carson County, and central Yuma County. Conditions were dry over the Upper Colorado River Basin as the moisture did not extend far enough west.
Despite being dry, temperatures were cooler than average for the UCRB over the past week generally by only 0-3 degrees. The Upper Green River Basin was even cooler with respect to normal. Sublette County and northern Lincoln County were 6-9 degrees cooler than normal. Northeast Colorado was 0-3 degrees cooler than normal for the most part. Southeast Colorado fell on the warm side of the gradient and experienced temperatures 0-3 degrees above normal.
Streamflow has come way down over the past month as the spring supply of snowmelt and soil moisture diminishes. In the UCRB flows are in the normal range for this time of year in most places. Flows are in the normal range in eastern Colorado too. The Duchesne River Basin and the headwaters of the San Juan are seeing below normal flows. The mainstem of the Green River is beginning to drop into the below normal range as well.
Vegetation across the UCRB is gradually trending towards more stressed than average conditions. Soils are also drying, but still mostly in the normal range. The eastern half of Utah and much of southwest Colorado is showing pre-to-moderate drought. The Upper Green River Basin and the Yampa and White Basins are still in the normal-to-moist range. East of the divide, vegetation is mostly in the normal-to-moist range with respect to average. Larimer, Grand, and southeast Jackson Counties are in moderate drought as this area has not received normal precipitation from thunderstorms.
Continued monsoonal flow is expected to benefit western Colorado through Thursday. The San Juans and Central Rockies may see over an inch of rainfall. On Friday and beyond more dry airflow is expected out of the west. We will continue to track this drying trend, but due in part to the cooler temperatures seen over the basin this past week, and rainfall across much of eastern Colorado, no degradations appear to be warranted at this time.
UCRB: Status Quo
Eastern Colorado: Status Quo
**Disclaimer: The above recommendations are recommendations only, based on data, impacts, and
input from local experts. These recommendations are sent to the U.S. Drought Monitor author on Tuesdays. The USDM author
has sole discretion on final changes made in the region and can accept, reject, or modify the above recommendations
and may have additional modifications. Additionally, any recommendations discussed during the NIDIS webinars that are agreed upon
by the local experts and USDM author are still subject to change. Changes are final and official as of Thursday
morning, and can be viewed on the official U.S. Drought Monitor website.
Additional Drought Index Links: (will take you to an outside website)
Palmer Drought Severity Index for Climate Divisions Updated Weekly
WestWide Drought Tracker's PDSI Updated Monthly
Surface Water Supply Index