This week’s US Drought Monitor shows big changes across Colorado. The southeastern plains got some much-needed moisture from a big spring storm last week. This led to improvements in the drought situation in that part of the state. In contrast, the rest of the state didn’t see as much precipitation from that storm, and felt the effects of some very warm days for mid-May. Drought conditions are worsening across southwestern, northwestern, and northeastern Colorado.

Let’s take a closer look at what’s been happening.

First, the good news

On May 5-7, a slow-moving storm system brought widespread precipitation to eastern Colorado. Most of southeastern Colorado received over 1.5″ of rain, and the highest amounts were near Cañon City and west of Colorado Springs, where over 3″ was reported. The northern Front Range also saw beneficial moisture from this storm.

The water year has been a little strange in southeastern Colorado, with the huge snowstorm back in November, then very little precipitation for four months, and now another big storm in May. The end result is that the southeastern plains are now well above-average for precipitation for the water year, almost all of it from those two storms.

This storm was almost entirely good news, with boosts to soil moisture, a temporary jump in mountain snowpack, and a nice green-up of vegetation. However, in Manitou Springs, the rapid flip from heavy snow on Pikes Peak to summer-like warmth resulted in a water emergency, as the water flowing into town was too turbid for treatment facilities to keep up with.

Now, the bad news

West of the continental divide, the mountain snowpack and water supply situation has gone from bad to worse in the last few weeks. For western Colorado, April is typically one of the wettest months of the year, but this year continued a recent string of dry Aprils. (Read more on that in our April monthly summary.) May thus far has been more of the same, with warm and sunny conditions, especially in northwestern Colorado. Many of the SNOTEL stations in northern Colorado and southern Wyoming have had either their lowest or 2nd-lowest precipitation on record for the period from April 1-May 13.

The lack of new snow and the extended warmth and sunshine has led to a rapid decline in snowpack in the northern and central mountains. These areas were the relative bright spot in terms of snowpack as of early April, but now the entire snowpack map is covered in orange and red. Statewide, the mountain snowpack is down to just 44% of average as of May 13, largely reflecting the early melt.

Forecasts through summer from both NRCS and CBRFC show below-average streamflow everywhere, with flows just a bit below average in the Colorado River headwaters, only 40-60% of average in southwestern Colorado, the Rio Grande, and the Arkansas, and 60-80% of average elsewhere in the state. These outlooks will likely get adjusted downward somewhat as a result of the dry early May. Not great news.

How about the outlook?

In the near term, we’ve settled into a cooler pattern for the next week or so, and northern Colorado saw some precipitation (and strong winds!) yesterday. A bigger storm is on the way for Sunday into early next week. It appears that this storm will bring some beneficial precipitation to northern Colorado, though the heavier amounts will likely stay to our north.

Looking farther out, there is a mix of good and bad news. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center just released their latest monthly and seasonal outlooks. The outlook for June is for hotter and drier than average conditions across Colorado, and if that is what happens, it will only worsen the drought in the state. But the outlook for July through September hints at an active North American Monsoon season in the southwestern US.

Naturally there is a lot of concern for the wildfire potential when we see such low snowpack and growing drought across Colorado, as drought years are when we have also seen intense wildfires. The drought situation this year is not looking quite as bad as 2002, 2012, or 2018, which were all extremely active wildfire years—but it’s at least in the same conversation. A hot and dry June would increase the wildfire risk, as mid-late June is when we saw big wildfires in these years. But if the monsoon is active, that can help to keep the fire season shorter. Predictions of the monsoon a few months in advance always have a lot of uncertainty, but we can keep a little hope that well-timed summer rains might keep the wildfire risk down.